Tropical Cyclone Cyclone Emeraude

On Mar. 15, GPM saw rain bands wrapping around developing Tropical Cyclone Emeraude's center and rain was falling at over 220 mm (8.7 inches) per hour in south of the center. Storm tops heights above 15 km (9.3 miles) high. Credit: NASA/JAXA/SSAI, Hal Pierce

Tropical Cyclone Emeraude developed early on March 16 in the Southern Indian Ocean, but NASA's GPM core satellite saw the storm coming together the day before.

The Global Precipitation Measurement or GPM Core Observatory satellite saw tropical cyclone Emeraude forming in the South Indian ocean on March 15, 2016 at 0900 UTC (5 a.m. EDT). A rainfall analysis using data collected by GPM's Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) showed rain bands wrapping around a tropical low pressure area. GPM's DPR measured rain falling at the extreme rate of over 220 mm (8.7 inches) per hour in powerful storms south of the low's center of circulation.

GPM's radar (DPR Ku Band) data were able to show the 3-D structure of precipitation within the tropical low. GPM radar measured storm tops heights above 15 km (9.3 miles) high. Intense showers were returning radar reflectivity values greater than 52 dbZ to the satellite. The GPM mission is co-managed by NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

On Mar. 15, GPM saw rain bands wrapping around developing Tropical Cyclone Emeraude's center and rain was falling at over 220 mm (8.7 inches) per hour in south of the center. Storm tops heights above 15 km (9.3 miles) high. Credit: NASA/JAXA/SSAI, Hal Pierce

On March 16 at 0900 UTC (5 a.m. EDT), Tropical Cyclone Emeraude was located near 10.8 degrees south latitude and 84.9 degrees east longitude. That's about 768 nautical miles (883.8 miles/1,422 km) east-southeast of Diego Garcia. It was moving to the west-northwest at 5 knots (5.7 mph/9.2 kph). Maximum sustained winds were near 55 knots (63.2 mph/101.9 kph) and it was strengthening.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) expects Emeraude to turn to the east-southeast, intensifying to 105 knots by March 18 as it moves through an area of warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Emeraude is then expected to turn south and weaken.

NEW BORN hurricane cyclone GPM Image of Corentin (IMAGE)

CAPTION

On Jan. 21 at 0146 UTC GPM saw rain at a rate of over 71 mm (2.8 inches) per hour in strong storms to the northeast Corentin's center. Cloud tops were reaching heights of almost 13 km (8 miles) in the intense feeder band west of the low's center of circulation.

CREDIT

Credits: NASA/JAXA/SSAI, Hal Pierce

USAGE RESTRICTIONS

None

Tropical Cyclone Corentin developed in the Southern Indian Ocean as NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement or GPM mission core satellite flew overhead and analyzed the storm's rainfall and clouds.

The GPM core observatory satellite saw the developing tropical cyclone east of Madagascar on January 21, 2016 at 0146 UTC (Jan 20 at 8:46 p.m. EST). GPM is a mission that is co-managed by both NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

When GPM flew over the developing tropical cyclone Corentin, GPM's Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) measured precipitation. The most intense showers were dropping rain at a rate of over 71 mm (2.8 inches) per hour in strong storms to the northeast of the tropical low's center of circulation. GPM's radar (DPR) viewed a swath of data to the west of the developing tropical cyclone center where rain was measured falling at a rate of over 80 mm (3.1 inches) per hour.

At NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, data derived from GPM's DPR (Ku Band) was used to create a 3-D view of the storm. The 3-D image showed that storm tops were reaching heights of almost 13 km (8 miles) in the intense feeder band west of the low's center of circulation.

At 1500 UTC (10 a.m. EST) on Jan. 21, the first bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Corentin centered the storm near 15.9 degrees south latitude and 73.6 degrees east longitude, about 532 nautical miles south of Diego Garcia. Corentin had maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40 mph/62 kph). It was moving to the west-southwest at 10 knots (11.5 mph/18.5 kph).

Corentin is expected to move southwest, steadily veering south and southeast. The storm will intensify to 80 knots before veering southwest again and weakening.

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Another Cold Front approaching on Friday

Probable temperature ranges between 6.0 and 10.0 degrees Celsius on Sunday .
This Friday the entry of a new cold to the Yucatan Peninsula , which favor strong north event for that day and a significant drop in temperatures for the weekend against anticipated , reports the National Water Commission ( Conagua ) through the Regional Hydrometeorological Center of Merida ( CHRM ) National Weather Service (NWS ) .

According to forecasts , the front number will begin to affect the Yucatan Peninsula , especially the coast of Campeche and Yucatan from Friday morning, so are anticipated for most of the day winds North component will reach 60 kilometers per hour (km / h ) .

On Saturday North winds with speeds origin above 45 km / h is still maintained. In high seas, high waves on Friday two to three meters high is anticipated , so it is recommended to seagoing be aware of the warnings issued by harbourmaster . This frontal system will favor a significant drop in minimum temperatures between Saturday morning and Monday , as well , though not as strong , at maximum , due to cloudy conditions to be presented to the weekend . As such, this Friday minimum temperatures ranging between 14.0 and 18.0 degrees Celsius for Yucatan are forecast , while for Campeche and Quintana Roo will be between 15.0 and 19.0 degrees , and between 16.0 and 20.0 degrees Celsius respectively

As such, this Friday temperatures ranging between 14.0 and 18.0 degrees Celsius are forecast for Yucatán, while for Campeche and Quintana Roo will be between 15.0 and 19.0 degrees, and between 16.0 and 20.0 degrees Celsius respectively.

The maximum this day will be between 25.0 and 29.0 degrees Celsius for the three states of the Yucatan Peninsula. On Saturday, thermometers are expected to come down a little more and Yucatan values may arise between 10.0 and 14.0 degrees, while Campeche and Quintana Roo to between 13.0 and 17.0 degrees.

The maximum for the day would be between 20.0 and 24.0 degrees Celsius. By Sunday, according to forecasts, they could present ranges of temperatures in the morning between 6.0 and 10.0 degrees Celsius for Yucatan, while for Campeche and Quintana Roo could be between 10.0 and 14.0 degrees Celsius. While these minimum values are expected during the morning of the three days mentioned above, it is possible that they could present a bit lower values in some parts of the Southern Cone and west of Yucatan

Cyclone Victor to be Category Four by Monday, as Cook Islanders hit by winds

yclone Victor is causing gale-force winds on Palmerston in the Cook Islands and is expected to intensify into a Category 4 on Monday.

The atoll has been on high alert as the cyclone, upgraded to category 3 on Sunday and centred several hundred kilometres away, moved slowly towards it.

Winds close to the centre are about 115 km/h. The Fiji Meteorological Service says the cyclone is intensifying and the wind strength will increase to 150 km/h.

Cyclone Victor hovers over the Cook Islands in the Pacific Islands region.

Photo: wunderground.com

Still intensifying

A gale warning is in place for the Southern Cooks and there will be showers and possibly thunderstorms.

An observer at the Cook Islands Meteorological Service, Manea Mareteapu, said the cyclone was moving at two knots, which is slow, indicating that it is still intensifying, and it would be a category 4 by Monday.

Palmerston resident Will Rowe said wind was already gusting up to 120 km/h on the atoll and it was unsafe to be outside.

"The seas are incredibly high coming from the north, the lagoon is boiling like a cauldron and we have fallen fronds and coconuts and other debris right across the island at present, so it's getting to the point now where it's going to become unsafe for people to leave their homes."

Mr Rowe said authorities had taken action and people were prepared with supplies.

"In terms of preparations, everyone's sort of got a go-pack so to speak, with food and water and everything, medicine that they require. The Palmerston Island Administration has been absolutely fantastic in assisting households on the northern side to evacuate which has already been done. The Palmerston Island people are very resourceful, hardy people and have been through all this before."

Prepared

Palmerston Island Administration executive director Arthur Neale said the island's 59 residents had been preparing for the past few days and those on the north of the island close to the shore have moved to homes further inland.

He says the normally placid lagoon was something to behold.

"Yeah you look out and it's just like a churning washing machine, it's just constant white horses."

Rough seas had already eroded as much as 10 feet of the shoreline in some places, he said

Mr Neale said boats had been moved to the centre of the 1.2 square kilometre main island, and houses and public buildings had been secured ahead of tonight's expected worsening conditions.

"As a low-lying island, you do what you can do. We've had some slight flooding in the lower areas, we've also had a bit of erosion."

However, Mr Neale said the cyclone's rain was welcome on the drought-stricken island, where there had not been any rainfall for two months.

"We welcome the rain, that's for sure. We're in the middle of a drought with the El Niño. Our last rain was when cyclone Tuni came by on the 13th of November."

The southern Cook Islands are expected to avoid a close encounter with Victor as it moves southwest between Rarotonga and Niue. However, Arona Ngari warns that cyclone forecasts are vulnerable to change and people should continue to monitor forecasts.

Cook Islands atoll starts to feel cyclone Victor

The category two cyclone currently has winds of 90 kilometres an hour at its centre as it moves south-southwest past the northern atolls at about three kilometres an hour.

Palmerston is closest to the cyclone's path, and a resident, William Rowe, says every warning has Victor inching closer to the atoll.

Mr Rowe says Victor is likely to be category three by the time it reaches its closest point, and authorities expect it to be as bad as a cyclone in 1991 which flooded about half the main island.

He says the weather has already deteriorated significantly, and residents in the north of the island are moving to higher ground.

"At the moment we've got sort of squally rain showers, it's blowing about 50 knots. The lagoon, which is normally quite placid, is looking like a cauldron of boiling water. We've got very, very heavy seas and we're expecting at high tide to have some pretty severe flooding up the northern end of the island."

William Rowe says the island is well prepared for cyclones and has supplies and communications equipment.

The director of the Cook Islands Meteorological Service, Arona Ngari, says Victor is expected to stick to the ocean between Rarotonga and Niue over the next two days.

Mr Ngari says currently, the only concern is for Palmerston, which is the closest populated area to Victor's path.

"The cloud band has certainly extended onto the island with some strong winds and some high seas," he says.

The executive officer of the Palmerston Island Administration, Arthur Neale, says the island's 59 residents have been preparing for the past few days.

He says incredibly rough seas have already eroded as much as 10 feet of the shoreline in some places, and the normally placid lagoon has turned very rough.

Mr Neale says boats have been moved to the centre of the 1.2 square kilometre main island, and houses and public buildings have been secured with conditions expected to worsen tonight.

"As a low-lying island, you do what you can do," Mr Neale said. "We've had some slight flooding in the lower areas, we've also had a bit of erosion."

However, Mr Neale says the cyclone's rain is welcome on the drought-stricken island, where there hasn't been any rainfall for two months.

"We welcome the rain, that's for sure. We're in the middle of a drought with the El Niño. Our last rain was when cyclone Tuni came by on the 13th of November."

The southern Cook Islands are expected to avoid a close encounter with Victor as it moves southwest between Rarotonga and Niue. However, Arona Ngari warns that cyclone forecasts are vulnerable to change and people should continue to monitor forecasts.

The Samoas

To the west, a tropical storm warning has been issued for American Samoa's Manu'a islands.

The National Weather Service in American Samoa says the Manu'a group can expect strong winds and rough seas until Sunday morning (Saturday, American Samoa time).

A Polynesian Airlines flight had to be diverted back to Pago Pago this morning because of the poor conditions, and ferry sailings for Saturday have also been cancelled.

In Samoa, the Disaster Management Office says a wind and coastal flood advisory is in effect for low-lying areas.

Hurricane Alex update

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
610 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Alex, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
Azores.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2016. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

Public Advisories on Alex are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Alex are
issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Brennan
NNNN

Fist Hurricane in January 2016

A low pressure system that was moving over the Eastern Atlantic has entered the history books by developing into a rare January hurricane, which has been given the first name on the 2016 list for the Atlantic Basin, ‘Alex’.

Alex formed near the central Azores, hundreds of miles away from Portugal and is the first recorded hurricane to form in the month of January since one did so in 1938, which is being called remarkable by meteorologists.

Earlier this morning, Alex’s centre was about 490 miles south of Faial Island in the central Azores with maximum sustained winds of 85 miles per hour and was moving northeast a 20 miles per hour.

Several islands in the Azores have been given warning as Alex is expected to produce up to 5 inches of rain tomorrow over those islands and if it continues to move at its current pace or increases speed, it can possibly affect Belize’s weather.

New Projects to be done during the hurricane season 2016/2017

During the 2016 and 2017 hurricane seasons, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be testing new tools that have the potential to improve the analysis and prediction of tropical storms and hurricanes. Eight new projects are funded with a total of $1.4 million through the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT). The mission of the JHT is to transfer more rapidly and smoothly new technology, research results, and observational advances of the United States Weather Research Program within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), its sponsoring agencies, the academic community and other groups into improved tropical cyclone analysis and prediction at operational centers. The eight new projects to be tested are: 1. “Passive Microwave Data Exploitation via the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Tropical Cyclone Webpage” by Dr. Josh Cossuth and colleagues at the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, California. This project provides improved real-time microwave imagery of tropical storms and hurricanes, and includes an archive going back to 1987. 2. “Improvements in Operational Statistical Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Models” by Dr. Andrea Schumacher at the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere in Fort Collins, Colorado. This project aims to upgrade maximum wind and size prediction tools available to forecasters. 3. “Improvement and Implementation of the Probability-based Microwave Ring Rapid Intensification Index for NHC/the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Forecast Basins” by Prof. Haiyan Jiang at Florida International University in Miami, Florida. This project is focused upon development of techniques to forecast rapid intensification of tropical cyclones around the world based in part upon microwave imagery. 4. “Guidance on Observational Undersampling over the Tropical Cyclone Lifecycle” by Prof. Dave Nolan at the University of Miami in Miami, Florida. This project will provide guidance to forecasters on how to best estimate maximum winds in tropical storms and hurricanes based upon available observations from aircraft, satellite, and in situ platforms. 5. “Probabilistic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Using Satellite Passive Microwave Imagery” by Dr. Chris Rozoff and Mr. Chris Velden at the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies in Madison, Wisconsin. This project will provide a revised technique for forecasting rapid intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes based in part upon microwave imagery. 6. “Improved Eyewall Replacement Cycle Forecasting Using a Modified Microwave-Based Algorithm (ARCHER)” by Dr. Tony Wimmers at the NOAA Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies in Madison, Wisconsin and Dr. Jim Kossin at National Centers for Environmental Information in Asheville, North Carolina. This project looks to enhance guidance for predicting maximum wind speed changes during eyewall replacement cycles in strong hurricanes. 7. “Transition of the Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide (CEST) Model to an Operational Model for Forecasting Storm Surges” by Prof. Keqi Zhang at Florida International University in Miami, Florida. This project will test the feasibility of using the CEST storm surge model for operational ensemble-based predictions when tropical storms and hurricanes make landfall in the United States. 8. “Improvements to the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index (TCGI)” by Mr. Jason Dunion at NOAA Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences in Miami, Florida. This project expects to improve guidance on the formation of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins. Contact: nhc.public.affairs@noaa.gov

Update on Subtropical storm in early January

NHC has issued an updated Special Tropical Weather Outlook regarding the extratropical low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. It's centered about 75 miles north of Bermuda, producing a large area of gale-force winds and maximum winds of 50 to 60 mph.

During the next couple of days, the combination of strong upper-level winds, dry air, and cool sea- surface temperatures are expected to remain unfavorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation while the low moves eastward at 15 to 20 mph into the central Atlantic Ocean. However, environmental conditions could become more conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical characteristics while it moves east- southeastward into the eastern subtropical Atlantic next week. Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system is expected to produce hazardous marine conditions over portions of the central Atlantic for the next few days.

For additional information, see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.
Another Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 3 p.m. EST Saturday. www.hurricanes.gov

January Subtropical hurricane development 2016

According to the United States National Hurricane Center, a low pressure system stationed between that country and Bermuda, has a chance of developing into a subtropical storm which is rare for the month of January; so rare that only five have developed around this time in more than 100 years.

The storm is currently centered a few hundred miles West-Southwest of Bermuda and has produced winds up to 65 miles per hour but it is unlikely for it to form into a subtropical or tropical storm in 48 hours with only a 10 percent chance of that happening.

Over the next five days though, there is a 30 percent chance of it developing into a subtropical cyclone, posing a potential threat to Belize since we are not too far away from Bermuda, less than 3,000 kilometers in fact.

In the event that the storm develops, it would be given the first name on the list for this year’s upcoming hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin, which is ‘Alex’. The last storm like this one to develop was named Zeta and it spun harmlessly in the Atlantic.